Euro climbs on caution over impact of US tax bill

LONDON: The euro rose slightly on Tuesday as investors took a cautious view over how much tax reforms, if passed, would boost the US economy, with most major currencies trading in tight ranges in a relatively thin market.

Traders are shying away from taking big positions ahead of the holiday season, although news that the US tax overhaul was set to become law helped support some risk appetite.

The euro was up 0.2 percent at 1.1805 against the dollar, and broadly flat against the pound at 88.16 pence per euro.

"It's a bit neutral," said Viraj Patel, a foreign exchange strategist at ING. "The tax reform is going to be one of the key angles for markets this week…(but) nobody is going to be taking any major positions before the year-end."

The euro is up more than 12 percent against the dollar so far this year and is on track for posting its best annual performance since 2004.

While it remains roughly 3 percent away from the 2-1/2 year peak of nearly $1.21 hit in early September, the 2017 gains show how sentiment towards the euro zone has turned around completely from earlier this year when the bloc's breakup was discussed.

The Republican-controlled US Congress appears all but certain this week to pass the sweeping tax overhaul backed by President Donald Trump after two Senate Republican holdouts agreed on Monday to support it.

Rising hopes of the bill's passage helped push US stocks to record highs on Monday. European stock futures had a timid start after corporate deal-making had pushed markets higher earlier in the week.

While Fed policymakers expect the US economy to get a short-term lift from the tax reform, they project growth will then ease back to about 2 percent by 2020 and not rise to around 3 percent as Trump and his administration predict.

"We expect the bill to pass, as do many market participants, and it seems to make the equity investors happy," said Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

The dollar was flat against the yen at 112.535 yen , drifting in a range between a high of 113.750 hit a week ago and Friday's low of 112.035.

Bitcoin was down 0.3 percent at $18,875 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange, below its record high of $19,666 hit on Sunday.

The Australian dollar edged up 0.1 percent to $0.7676, within sight of six-week highs touched last week, as the country's central bank expressed greater confidence about the economic outlook.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) December meeting released on Tuesday showed policymakers were encouraged by improved economic data, though weakness in consumer spending was still a "significant risk."